How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

EV & SizingFree utility

Estimate the chance of finishing below a ruin threshold over repeated bets.

risk of ruinbankroll riskdrawdown

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Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Win probability

Bet fraction

Number of bets

Ruin threshold

Instant

Primary output

1.764%

Approx. ruin probability

Live resultReady to copy

Notes

This assumes independent repeated bets at the same edge and sizing.

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