How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

EV & SizingFree utility

Measure the gap between your probability and the market's.

edge calculatorprobability edgebetting edge

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Your probability

Market probability

Instant

Primary output

+5.00%

Edge

Live resultReady to copy

Edge in bps

500 bps

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