How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

EV & SizingFree utility

Scale Kelly sizing down to a more survivable fraction.

fractional kellyhalf kellybet sizing

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Bankroll

True probability

Entry price

Kelly multiplier

Instant

Primary output

$312.50

Fractional Kelly stake

Live resultReady to copy

Full Kelly

12.50%

Multiplier

0.50x

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