How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

EV & SizingFree utility

Estimate full-Kelly bankroll sizing for a binary share trade.

kelly criterionbet sizebankroll

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Bankroll

True probability

Entry price

Instant

Primary output

$625.00

Full Kelly stake

Live resultReady to copy

Kelly fraction

12.50%

Notes

Kelly is highly aggressive. Most traders use a fraction of this size.

Keep the workflow moving with the next most relevant calculators.

EV Calculator

Compute expected value per share and for a given stake size.

Edge Calculator

Measure the gap between your probability and the market's.

Fractional Kelly Sizer

Scale Kelly sizing down to a more survivable fraction.

CRRA Utility Bet Size

Optimize stake size for a chosen level of risk aversion.