How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

EV & SizingFree utility

Optimize stake size for a chosen level of risk aversion.

crrarisk aversionbet size

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Bankroll

True probability

Entry price

Risk aversion (gamma)

Instant

Primary output

$314.40

CRRA-optimal stake

Live resultReady to copy

Optimal fraction

6.29%

Keep the workflow moving with the next most relevant calculators.

EV Calculator

Compute expected value per share and for a given stake size.

Edge Calculator

Measure the gap between your probability and the market's.

Kelly Bet Size

Estimate full-Kelly bankroll sizing for a binary share trade.

Fractional Kelly Sizer

Scale Kelly sizing down to a more survivable fraction.