How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

EV & SizingFree utility

Compare two candidate trades by expected log growth, not raw EV alone.

log growthbet comparisonkelly comparison

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Bet A probability

Bet A price

Bet A fraction

Bet B probability

Bet B price

Bet B fraction

Instant

Primary output

Bet A

Preferred bet

Live resultReady to copy

Bet A log growth

0.006958

Bet B log growth

0.005068

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Estimate full-Kelly bankroll sizing for a binary share trade.

Fractional Kelly Sizer

Scale Kelly sizing down to a more survivable fraction.