How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

EV & SizingFree utility

Compute the minimum belief required to justify a price before fees.

break even probabilityprice to belief

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Entry price

Instant

Primary output

62.00%

Break-even probability

Live resultReady to copy

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