How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

ConversionsFree utility

Express a market move as percentage points and basis points.

basis pointsprobability changemarket move

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Starting probability

Ending probability

Instant

Primary output

+6.00%

Probability move

Live resultReady to copy

Basis points

600 bps

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