How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

ConversionsFree utility

Convert a prediction-market price into implied probability in one step.

polymarketimplied probabilitycalculator

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Price

Instant

Primary output

52.00%

Implied probability

Live resultReady to copy

Basis points

5,200 bps

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Normalize a list of outcome prices into probabilities that sum to 100%.