How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

ConversionsFree utility

Turn your belief into a fair price, rounded to a usable tick.

fair priceprobability targetprice target

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Belief probability

Tick size

Rounding mode

Instant

Primary output

0.5700

Fair price

Live resultReady to copy

Notes

Rounded using a 0.01 tick size.

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