How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

PerformanceFree utility

Measure how concentrated or timid your forecasts are on average.

sharpnessforecast entropyconfidence

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Forecast probabilities

Instant

Primary output

0.6424

Mean entropy

Live resultReady to copy

Notes

Lower entropy means more confident forecasts, but that can also indicate overconfidence.

Keep the workflow moving with the next most relevant calculators.

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Brier Skill Score Calculator

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Calibration Error (ECE) Calculator

Estimate expected calibration error from a forecast log.