How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

PerformanceFree utility

Evaluate forecast quality with ignorance score / log loss.

log lossignorance scoreforecast accuracy

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Rows (probability, outcome)

Instant

Primary output

0.4864

Mean log loss

Live resultReady to copy

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Measure how concentrated or timid your forecasts are on average.