How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

PerformanceFree utility

Measure your Brier improvement versus a baseline forecast.

brier skill scoreforecast skillbaseline

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Rows (your prob, baseline prob, outcome)

Instant

Primary output

0.3439

Brier skill score

Live resultReady to copy

Keep the workflow moving with the next most relevant calculators.

Brier Score Calculator

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Estimate expected calibration error from a forecast log.

Sharpness (Entropy) Calculator

Measure how concentrated or timid your forecasts are on average.