How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

PerformanceFree utility

Generate an SVG reliability plot from a batch of resolved forecasts.

reliability diagramcalibration plotforecast chart

Adjust live

Rows (probability, outcome)

Instant

6 resolved forecasts plotted

Keep the workflow moving with the next most relevant calculators.

Brier Score Calculator

Score single predictions or batches of forecasts with Brier loss.

Log Loss Calculator

Evaluate forecast quality with ignorance score / log loss.

Brier Skill Score Calculator

Measure your Brier improvement versus a baseline forecast.

Calibration Error (ECE) Calculator

Estimate expected calibration error from a forecast log.