How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

PerformanceFree utility

Compare your forecasts against market-implied probabilities on the same resolved events.

market vs mebeat the marketforecast score delta

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

Rows (your prob, market prob, outcome)

Instant

Primary output

0.0550

Brier delta vs market

Live resultReady to copy

Keep the workflow moving with the next most relevant calculators.

Brier Score Calculator

Score single predictions or batches of forecasts with Brier loss.

Log Loss Calculator

Evaluate forecast quality with ignorance score / log loss.

Brier Skill Score Calculator

Measure your Brier improvement versus a baseline forecast.

Calibration Error (ECE) Calculator

Estimate expected calibration error from a forecast log.