How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

Fees & ArbitrageFree utility

Estimate Bernoulli correlation from single-event and joint-event prices.

implied correlationjoint probabilityprediction markets

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

P(A)

P(B)

P(A and B)

Instant

Primary output

0.1712

Implied correlation

Live resultReady to copy

P(A | B)

51.43%

P(B | A)

45.00%

Keep the workflow moving with the next most relevant calculators.

Fee-Aware Break-Even Price

Solve for the maximum price that still breaks even after trading fees.

YES + NO Bundle Arbitrage ROI

Check whether buying both sides still locks in a positive resolution payout.

Cross-Platform Binary Arbitrage ROI

Check a buy-YES / buy-NO complement trade across two venues.

Hedge Size Calculator

Estimate how many opposite-side shares you need to cap downside.