How should I use this result?

Treat it as a fast decision aid. For execution-sensitive trades, check live bid, ask, fees, and slippage before acting.

Does this assume Polymarket-style binary settlement?

Unless a tool says otherwise, outputs assume binary shares settle to either $1 or $0 at resolution.

Fees & ArbitrageFree utility

Derive P(A|B) from a joint market and its conditioning event.

conditional probabilityjoint marketsp a given b

Adjust live

Calculator setup

Enter your assumptions and this tool will update immediately.

P(A and B)

P(B)

Instant

Primary output

51.43%

P(A | B)

Live resultReady to copy

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